08/09/2002 - Entry #31

"Well, this looks like a good place to live. I say we settle here."
"Yeah, yeah, it looks good. Just one question, though..."
"Hmm? What's that?"
"Well, the volcano. I mean, are we sure it's safe?"
"Yes, yes, it's been dormant for years."
"Yeah, I get that, but, I mean, could it not go off at any time?"
"I guess technically it could."
"So don't you think we should, like, think about that?"
"Well, quite frankly, the chances of it going off are really small."
"But, the chance is still there, right? It would surely be prudent to at least build barricades or something. You know, as a precaution."
"Well, it's a fair point. Okay then, we will. Just as a precaution."

"So, we've decided to ban hand guns throughout the country."
"What? Why?"
"Well, they're dangerous, frankly. Hundreds and thousands of people die from gunshot wounds every year."
"Yes, but surely that's not our fault. You can't punish all of us just cos of some people's actions. I mean, are you assuming that we're all killers?"
"No, of course not. We're not for a minute suggesting that, for example, you will kill someone. But it really is impossible to know for certain, and it's just not worth the risk."
"You think it's better to ban all hand-guns, on the possibility that people will die?"
"Yes, we do. We can't know that they'll die, and individually the chances are very slim, but it's just not worth the risk. That isn't an assumption that you will, though. It's simply playing it safe."
"Fair enough."

"I'm afraid I have some potentially bad news, Mr. Ireland."
"Shit. What is it? Am I going to be alright?"
"Well, we don't really know. It's very unlikely that you won't, but we just don't know. You see, we've detected a tumour."
"Oh my god."
"Now, try not to be too alarmed. It is benign. We think it's going to stay that way, but there is a remote possibility that it could become malignant."
"Well, what can be done?"
"You basically have two options. You can leave it, and simply hope that it doesn't get worse. Again, bear in mind there's around a 90% chance it won't get any worse. Probably more in your favour, in fact."
"What's the other option?"
"You could have it surgically removed, and essentially remove any threat."
"Well, to be honest, I think I'd rather you removed it. I mean, even though it's incredibly unlikely it'll get worse, I think I'd just rather be safe than sorry."
"But the chances of it growing malignant are infintessimal."
"Yes, but while there's even the slimmest of chances, I think I'd rather not risk it."
"I can appreciate that."

"So yeah, I've got a problem."
"Yeah? What's that, mate?"
"Well, there's this girl. I think she might fancy me."
"Yeah? Why, what's she said?"
"Well...nothing really."
"Er...I see."
"I know, I know. I can't exactly explain it. I just get the feeling there might be something there. I genuinely don't think there is, I honestly don't, but the mere possibility slightly unnerves me."
"Hmm. So you're, like, what percentage certain she doesn't fancy you?"
"Oh, like, 90%. More, probably."
"You're more than 90% certain she isn't attracted to you?"
"Yeah."
"But not quite 100%."
"Yeah. There's the faintest hint of doubt in my mind."
"And if she did fancy you, then it would surely hurt her if you told her you don't feel the same way. I mean, you know, if. It's a huge, whopping great if, but still. Hmm."
"Exactly. It's really unlikely, but the minute risk is still there. So is it even remotely worth mentioning it?"
"I'd say no. If you do say something, then you're 90%+ likely to have made a mistake. But if you just keep quiet, and never mention it, then surely the only harm that can come of it is if she does fancy you, which is less than 10% likely."
"Yeah, it's a good point. The sensible thing would be to just never say anything."
"Yeah. The only way I can see it causing trouble, is if she specifically asks you to tell her whatever it is you're not telling her. If she out and out asks you to be totally honest. But if she does that, then I really can't see how it would be your fault. You're sitting here telling me how you don't think she does fancy you, so it's not like you're being arrogant. You're just worried about maybe hurting her feelings. If she specifically asks you to spit it out, then I wouldn't feel bad, if I were you."

And I don't. If you can't understand the reasoning behind any of those scenarios, then please don't ever get into an argument with me, because I simply do not obey the same laws of logic to you.

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